CSBA at Issue: School-based warning signs can help keep kids from dropping out
By:
Angelo Williams, Ed.D.Sping 2013
The need to improve the educational outcomes of students in California has never been so critical. The global market has created greater job competition; technology and the instantaneous nature of digital information have changed learning modalities and expectations for 21st century students; and students who enter school in 2013 will be preparing for jobs and industries that may not yet even exist. Every student in school faces the challenge of preparing for a future that is a moving target—and the target is moving at exponential rates.
For students who do not finish school, the challenges compound as time goes on. Research shows that the average high school dropout earns between $300,000 and $600,000 less over the course of a lifetime than someone with a high school diploma, and the gap is even larger between dropouts and those with a college degree. High school dropouts are much less likely to be working than high school graduates, and about half as likely to have jobs with health benefits and pension plans; and of course dropouts are less likely to pursue post-secondary education. It is not surprising, then, that high school dropouts are more likely to experience poverty and rely on government aid, and to have worse health and shorter lives; dropouts are eight times more likely to end up in the criminal justice system.
Yet across the nation, 7,000 students drop out of U.S. schools every day. Here in California, one out of every seven students who was supposed to graduate in 2011 dropped out.
And we cannot ignore that students of color—particularly boys of color—drop out (or get pushed out) at disproportionate rates. Compared to 14 percent of all students in the 2010-11 California cohort who dropped out, 25 percent of all African American students, 21 percent of Native American students, and 18 percent of Hispanic students dropped out. Going deeper, Hispanic boys made up 24 percent of the total 2010-11 cohort—but 35 percent of all students who dropped out; African American boys made up 4 percent of the total cohort—and 8 percent of all dropouts.
If graduating from school is so clearly beneficial for students and communities, and if not graduating is so clearly affecting our children of color at disproportionate rates, why is every corner of California not rallying to address the dropout crisis?
There is no one answer to this problem; the process of dropping out is contextual for each school and personal for each student. Research tells us that students are less likely to drop out when they:
- Live with both parents
- Live in families with greater financial and social resources
- Have attended preschool
Research also tells us that student motivation and expectations—from interest in the curriculum to a sense of belonging at the school—can influence the decision to stay in school or leave; so can family unemployment, homelessness, teen pregnancy, and drug and alcohol use.
But these circumstances may be different for each student and elusive for policymakers to pin down. Thus, the goal for educators and policymakers must be to identify the school-based warning signs that give district and school staff distinct opportunities to intervene. They include:
Attendance: The level of student engagement is one of the most important factors in predicting dropouts and high school graduates, and attendance is one of the most visible indicators of engagement. Boards should be aware that students who are chronically absent are more likely to have difficulty passing classes and more likely to drop out. An “Early Warning System High School Tool” developed by the National High School Center indicates that an absence rate greater than 10 percent in the first 20 days of high school—yes, just two days of school in the first 20, and greater than 10 percent for the overall grading period—can indicate that a student may end up dropping out.
Achievement: Boards should be aware that students’ grades, test scores, failed courses and retention rates are powerful dropout predictors. Middle school students with a GPA of 2.0 and high school students who score at the two lowest proficiency levels on the California Standards Tests are less likely to graduate. Nationally, a study of 4,000 students found that those who were not reading proficiently by third grade were four times more likely not to graduate from high school than proficient readers. Course failures during high school are also predictive of dropping out—failing ninth grade, core course failures, and failure to pass algebra by the ninth grade are key early warning signs.
Suspension and expulsion: Students disciplined more than 10 times have only a 40 percent chance of graduation from high school. In California, more than 400,000 students were suspended last year, for a total of 750,000 suspensions; over half were for relatively minor offenses not related to violence or drugs. What’s more, African American students are suspended three times as often as their white peers. Boards should monitor suspension and expulsion policies in their schools with a close eye on the connection between disciplinary action and dropping out.
Unfortunately, these indicators do not represent a mathematical equation for preventing dropouts—these are just some of the school-based warning signs that give schools an opportunity to help. Because there is no perfect road map to keeping every student in school, perhaps the most important first step for a board of education is to call attention to the issue and ask staff to drill down into the unique nature of the problem for your own district or county office and for your own students.
There is no question that addressing the dropout crisis with urgency will improve equity and educational outcomes for all students and strengthen our economy. Surely, California cannot afford not to make concerted efforts to keep students in school.
Angelo Williams (awilliams@csba.org) is CSBA’s assistant executive director of Policy and Programs.